He's Out Too: Trump Will Not Seek GOP Presidential Nomination

 

GOP candidates seem to be falling like flies the last couple of days. The latest in the installment of "He's Out" is Donald Trump.

To be certain, Trump was doing quite well in the polls. Of course, his support had waned in the wake of Obama's birth certificate release. Even so, he was a consistent top tier choice among GOP voters who were polled.

So, the big question is, why did he bow out? The polls showed he had a much better chance to lock up the nomination than did many of his counterparts. By his own admission, he felt that he could win both the primary and the general election. He had even started to lineup campaign consultants and tour stops. 

 

Again, it begs the question, why did Trump decide not to run? I suspect, and can confirm, that a great deal of it had to do with Trump and his "Apprentice" empire. Much like Huckabee's decision was tough because he would have to leave behind an important and lucrative media empire, Trump's was as well.

NBC executives had begun to apply extensive pressure on Trump asking him to make a decision soon. They were planning to air Trump's "Celebrity Apprentice" with or without Trump next season.

 

In the end, Trump noted the charitable work he was able to accomplish through his, and NBC's, highly popular "Apprentice" empire. Continuing in the work he started simply proved too much for Trump's presidential ambitions.

The question remains, who's the next to drop out? Share your thoughts!

Morning News Nuggets

National Security/Foreign Policy

• Why is the Media Not Discussing Obama's Misread of "Egyptian Spring?"
• Ben Stein: No "Arab Spring"
• Gates: Seal Team 6 Fears Safety After Role in UBL Raid Revealed

On the Home Front

• US Reaches Debt Limit
• Gallup: Obama's Polling Numbers Fall
• Floodgates Opened on Mississippi River
• McDonald's Changes Ordering System
• Gingrich Slams GOP Medicare Plan
• Republicans Slam Gingrich
• Liberal Journalist: Obama Could Take Over Corporations Now

He's Out: Huckabee Will Not Seek GOP Presidential Nomination

If you haven't already heard, Mike Huckabee will not seek the 2012 GOP nomination for president. This is despite the fact that he is currently leading or placing second in the major polls.

Even before Huckabee made his announcement on his FoxNews program on Saturday night, many had speculated that he would not run. This was due largely to his inactivity in the realm of putting together a campaign staff. Many of his 2008 staff members and/or consultants had already signed up to work for other candidates.

Another one of Huckabee's considerations was his ever expanding media empire. Admittedly, it would be difficult for anyone to walk away from a position which allows him to have a sense of security. More importantly, Huckabee's television and radio programs allow him to have a very large say in issues of public policy.

Everyone is already wondering who will benefit most from Huckabee's dropping out of the race. This, of course, is still very up in the air. Many, for some reason, would suspect that Romney would benefit most since he is polling second. While Romney may pick up some "Huckabee votes," it is unlikely that he will get the lions-share of them. 

For starters, you might recall that Huckabee and Romney did not have the greatest of relationships during the 2008 campaign. In his announcement, Huckabee even mentions the mildly bad blood between the two. Another reason is that many Huckabee voters are social conservatives and will likely look for a candidate with better social conservative credentials than Romney. Some have speculated that candidates, or potential candidates, like Santorum, Cain, or Palin would benefit most from Huckabee's decision not to run.

Whatever, the case, it is fairly clear that the most consistent early frontrunner has now taken himself out of the race. Only time and GOP voters will reveal the current frontrunner.

He's In: Newt Gingrich Announces Presidential Bid

Today, Newt Gingrich officially announced he is seeking the Republican nomination for president. You might recall that Gingrich is the 67 year old former Speaker of the House. He led the Republican Revolution of 1994, when the GOP took control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years.

On Monday, Gingrich announced he would soon announce his bid for the presidency. That day was, in fact, today. Take a few minutes to watch his announcement address, and see what you think.

Tomorrow, I will put up a poll asking you to consider who your favorite candidate for the GOP nomination. Unlike the current poll, your choices will include even those who are just being talked about in the media. Remember to vote in the current poll!

Obama Approval Now at 60%--Or Is It?

President Barack Obama (Courtesy: AP)

Could it be that Obama is now starting to see that bump in the polls everyone suspected after UBL's demise? Just yesterday, it was reported that Obama was only getting a three point approval bump. Now, today, we are told that polls show Obama with 60% job approval and and 53% believing he should be reelected. Which one is true?

The problem with polls are that the results can be misleading if you don't look closely at the details. It is not that AP necessarily did anything underhanded or shady. They rightly admit that their poll was a poll of adults. In other words, they did not take into account party identification when deciding whom to call. However, each adult who was called was asked to self-identify their partisan affiliation. The results of this question should tell us a great deal about the actual results.

If the breakdown in party identification comes out being similar to what turnout is expected to be, the results tell us a great deal. However, if the results are so skewed to one side that it isn't even feasible to assume that the turnout could ever be that way, we don't really come to understand that much.

Unfortunately, the results of this AP poll are in the latter category. 46% self-identified as a Democrat or Democrat leaner. That is compared to only 29% identifying Republican or Republican leaning. 4% were Independents and 20% didn't know.

So, unless the 2012 breakdown is expected to be 46% Democrat, 29% Republican, 4% Independent, and 20% Undecided, these poll numbers tell us absolutely nothing.

About the only thing we did learn from this poll is that people really approve of George W. Bush--including many Democrats. We know this because Bush's approval rating in this poll was 50% to 49%. We can learn something from this because the partisan makeup of the poll was very skewed against the former president yet he was still able to garner a positive result. This actually means that his approval is higher. Likewise, the skewed partisan affiliation in the poll likely means that President Obama's support is much lower.

Again, AP, through the poll itself, wasn't necessarily trying to fool the public. Even so, it could be said stories written by AP writers have done just that. Was that their intention? Who knows. What we do know is that the authors conveniently leave out the self-identified partisan breakdown of the respondents. So, was it a hatchet job--you decide!

You can check out the article put out by the AP here. Also, check out the National Review Online piece on debunking the AP poll.

Yes We Cain!!!

 
Last night's GOP presidential debate had a lot of great moments. As is normally the case, Ron Paul pulled off a series of zingers and flat out hilarious comments. That's not to say that he didn't make some excellent points. Instead, it simply means that Paul's answers were both informative and entertaining.

Rick Santorum showed primary voters why he had been a rising star before his reelection defeat in 2006. Tim Pawlenty had the courage to admit that he had been wrong when he had, at first, supported cap and trade legislation. He explained how he changed his mind after studying the issue in much more detail. Gary Johnson rightly used his opportunities to discuss a number of his accomplishments as governor of New Mexico.

You might say that each candidate had his flash of excellence--that is clear. That being said, businessman and former radio host Herman Cain consistently performed at a high level. In reality, he stole the show.

Mr. Cain had two especially outstanding moments. One was when moderator Chris Wallace asked Cain about his support for the Fair Tax, noting that experts argue that such a taxing system would actually hurt the middle class. Cain quickly responded by saying, "With all due respect, your experts are dead wrong." He followed up his great one liner with an explanation of exactly how the Fair Tax would be good for all taxpayers.

Cain's second great moment was when he was asked about his having never held an elected position. Mr. Cain quickly responded that most of the folks in Washington had previously held public office. His next sentence really brought the house down. He said, "How's that working out for ya?" RedState.com's Erick Erickson discusses Cain's performance in more detail here.

Dr. Frank Luntz's focus group was near unanimous in their opinion that Cain dominated the debate. In fact, this opinion was near unanimous in a group of more than twenty-five South Carolina GOP primary voters. Luntz was visibly taken aback by the overwhelming opinion that Cain had won the debate. He proceeded to ask the group how many had come in supporting Cain--only one raised her hand. In the end, the "no-name" Cain left with at least half the room solidly backing his candidacy--and the others weren't far behind.

In case you aren't familiar with Dr. Frank Luntz, be assured that this isn't his first time around the focus group block. The man is a consummate professional and wordsmith. Trust me, if he is taken aback at the response to Cain's performance, we all should be. When you have the time, you should check out Dr. Luntz's amazing book, Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear.


Be sure to watch Dr. Luntz's focus group below, and vote in the poll to pick your favorite candidate out of the five who participated in last night's debate.

Post Republican Debate Wrap-Up

Tonight's first Republican presidential debate provided an excellent forum for Republican primary voters to hear from some lesser known candidates.

Rick Santorum spoke often of the importance of family, life, and experience. Ron Paul stayed true to his Libertarian philosophy of individual liberty--even in cases relation to drug use. This stance was largely echoed by Gary Johnson. Tim Pawlenty argued that his record of practical conservative leadership in Minnesota is exactly what the country needs. In addition to advocating for the Fair Tax, Herman Cain noted the importance of solid, common sense leadership, just as he did in his book, Leadership Is Common Sense.

Overall, lots of important issues were discussed tonight. If you missed it, you missed a good one. Fortunately, you can return here in the morning and get the links to all the latest news on post-debate reactions.

Take the time to vote in the new poll, "Of the 5 Republicans who participated in the first debate, who's your favorite?"

South Carolina: First Republican Presidential Debate

At 9 P.M. EDT tonight, five potential contenders for the Republican nomination will square off against each other in South Carolina in the first Republican debate. While the big names of Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, and Sarah Palin might be missing from tonight's debate, there will still be plenty of excellent points to go around. The five candidates participating in tonight's event are Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson.

Herman Cain previously served as the CEO of Godfather's Pizza and as is a former chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Cain has never held public office--despite his popularity among the Tea Party faithful and a run for the US Senate in 2004. He recently hosted a successful radio show in Atlanta, GA.

Tim Pawlenty is the former governor of Minnesota, serving from 2002 to 2010. Prior to his stint as governor, Pawlenty served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 1992 to 2002.

Rick Santorum is a former US Representative and US Senator. He served the citizens of Pennsylvania for two terms in each chamber. By 2001, he had become the Senate's third-ranking Republican. Santorum was defeated in his 2006 reelection bid amidst a Democratic wave.

Ron Paul is currently serving his 11th full term as a US Representative from Texas. By trade, Paul is an obstetrician-gynecologist. He brings a spark to the debate with his vocally faithful following. Paul was the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 1988. He also sought the Republican nomination in 2008.

Gary Johnson is the former governor of New Mexico, serving from 1995 to 2002. Johnson worked his way up by building what became one of the largest construction companies in New Mexico. Interestingly, Johnson has participated in numerous triathlons and once climbed Mt. Everest.

Needless to say, we will get to hear a great deal from many of the candidates which have not been garnering a wide range of attention as of yet. This fact should make us listen to the candidates even more closely tonight. Each brings a unique perspective to the battle for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Who is your favorite Republican candidate for 2012? If you don't know, find out tonight!

You can watch the debate online at FoxNews.com.